Thursday, September 26, 2019

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RBA heeds global ‘shift’, hints at more cuts

Australia cannot “insulate” itself and “ignore” shifts in global interest rates, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has said, hinting at further reductions to the cash rate.
In an address to the Armidale Business Chamber, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Philip Lowe has noted the shift in the global economic environment, particularly in light of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) new wave of interest rate cuts.
Mr Lowe said that monetary policy easing abroad would place downward pressure on the Australian dollar, reinforcing the need for further cuts to the cash rate.
“We live in an interconnected world, which means that we cannot completely insulate ourselves from long-lasting shifts in global interest rates,” he said.
“Our floating exchange rate gives us a degree of monetary independence, but we can’t ignore structural shifts in global interest rates.
“If we did seek to ignore these shifts, our exchange rate would appreciate, which, in the current environment, would be unhelpful in terms of achieving both the inflation target and full employment.”
Mr Lowe said that a low global rate environment would remain entrenched until “factors leading to a depressed appetite to invest relative to the appetite to save” are addressed.
“Whether or not this will happen, time will tell,” he added. “But as a small open economy, we have to take the world and global interest rates as we find them.”
The RBA governor also pointed to spare capacity in the domestic market, stating that the economy “can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment than previously thought likely”.
“The flexibility of labour supply also means that strong rates of employment growth can be sustained without inflation becoming a problem – these are both positive developments,” he said.
Mr Lowe added that while inflation is expected to “pick up”, it would likely remain below the midpoint of the target range “for some time to come”, conceding that more cuts may be required to make inroads towards the RBA’s inflation and unemployment targets.
“The decisions to ease monetary policy in June and July were taken to help make more assured progress towards full employment and the inflation target,” he said.
“Further monetary easing may well be required.
“While we are at a gentle turning point and expect growth to pick up, the strength and durability of this pick-up remains to be seen.”
Analysts are expecting at least one additional cut to the cash rate from the RBA before the close of 2019.  
According to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, the central bank may lower rates twice in the coming months, taking the cash rate to a new record low of 0.5 per cent.   
The RBA’s next monetary policy board meeting will be held on Tuesday, 1 October.
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019

ZDNET

Microsoft releases out-of-band security update to fix IE zero-day & Defender bug

Catalin Cimpanu · Sep 23, 6:00 PM

Microsoft has released an emergency out-of-band security update today to fix two critical security issues -- a zero-day vulnerability in the Internet Explorer scripting engine that has been exploited in the wild, and a Microsoft Defender bug.

The updates stand out because Microsoft usually likes to stay the course and only release security updates on the second Tuesday of every month. The company rarely breaks this pattern, and it's usually only for very important security issues.

This is one of those occasions, and Windows users are advised to install today's updates as soon as they become available in their operating system's update section.

The IE zero-day

Of the two bugs, the Internet Explorer zero-day is the most important, mainly because it's already been exploited in active attacks in the wild.

Details about the attacks are still shrouded in mystery, and Microsoft rarely releases such details. What we know is that the attacks and the zero-day have been reported to Microsoft by Clément Lecigne, a member of Google's Threat Analysis Group.

This is the same Google team that has detected the attacks with iOS zero-days against members of the Chinese Uyghur community earlier this year. Those attacks also targeted Android and Windows users; however, it is unclear if the IE zero-day patched today is part of those attacks.

But what we know now is that IE zero-day is a very serious vulnerability. It is what researchers call a remote code execution (RCE) issue.

According to Microsoft, "the vulnerability could corrupt memory in such a way that an attacker could execute arbitrary code in the context of the current user."

"An attacker who successfully exploited the vulnerability could gain the same user rights as the current user," Microsoft said. "If the current user is logged on with administrative user rights, an attacker who successfully exploited the vulnerability could take control of an affected system. An attacker could then install programs; view, change, or delete data; or create new accounts with full user rights."

The attack requires luring an Internet Explorer user on a malicious website, which is a rather trivial task, as it can be achieved by various methods such as spam email, IM spam, search engine ads, malvertising campaigns, and others.

The good news is that Internet Explorer usage has gone down to 1.97% market share, according to StatCounter, meaning the number of users vulnerable to attacks is rather small, and attacks should be pretty limited in scope.

The IE zero-day is tracked with the CVE-2019-1367 identifier. In a security advisory, Microsoft lists various workarounds for protecting systems if today's update can't be applied right away.

Microsoft Defender DoS bug

The second issue fixed today is a denial of service (DoS) vulnerability in Microsoft Defender, formerly known as Windows Defender, the standard antivirus that ships with Windows 8 and later versions, including the widespread Windows 10 release.

According to Microsoft, "an attacker could exploit the vulnerability to prevent legitimate accounts from executing legitimate system binaries."

The good news is that this bug isn't such a big issue. To exploit this bug, an attacker would first need access to a victim's system and the ability to execute code.

The bug alows a threat actor to disable Microsoft Defender components from executing, but if the attacker already has "execution rights" on a victim's computer, then there are many other ways to run malicious code undetected -- such as fileless attacks.

Nevertheless, Microsoft has released update v1.1.16400.2 to the Microsoft Malware Protection Engine, a component of the Microsoft Defender antivirus, to fix this issue.

This bug is tracked as CVE-2019-1255. Microsoft credited Charalampos Billinis of F-Secure Countercept and Wenxu Wu of Tencent Security Xuanwu Lab with discovering this issue.

All the Chromium-based browsers

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Monday, September 23, 2019

Dynamic market conditions are resulting in changing first home buyer behaviour and needs

As first home buyer needs continue to evolve, it is important that a range of stakeholders – both public and private – work together to develop solutions that complement each other and continue to support the Australian dream of homeownership.  

Last week, the government introduced legislation to implement the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, a key part of its federal election campaign earlier this year.
The scheme helps first home buyers enter the property market sooner, by providing 10,000 eligible Australians per year access to a home loan with a deposit of as little as 5%. The legislation outlines income tests to assess first home buyer eligibility in the program, as well as modest dwelling price limits. 
To implement the scheme, the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) will contract with a panel of lenders rather than ever having direct contact with borrowers. As such, lenders or mortgage brokers will assess scheme eligibility alongside the normal considerations of seeing a borrower through the loan process, such as loan serviceability tests.
Therefore, the scheme has compliance costs for lenders and mortgage brokers, estimated at $2.17m per year. 
Lenders, before offering the guaranteed loans, will need to update their internal systems and train front-line lending staff, including on how to apply the eligibility criteria. 
Non-participating lenders will not face any additional regulatory costs, and lenders are able to choose to participate only if they feel that the commercial benefits of participating in the scheme offset the associated regulatory costs.
For mortgage brokers to offer the guaranteed loans to clients, it will require training or self-education, the details of which have yet to be provided. 
The legislation also establishes a research function of the NHFIC to examine housing demand, supply and affordability within Australia.
Since preliminary consultations were initiated in late May 2019, a broad range of stakeholders in the home loan process including lenders, industry associations, mortgage brokers and financial regulators have been able to weigh in. 
The Customer Owned Banking Association (COBA) has welcomed the legislation. 
CEO Michael Lawrence said, “There are many customer-owned banking institutions that are eager to be a part of this scheme after the Government said it would prioritise smaller lenders to help boost competition.
“Customer-owned banking institutions have a long tradition of helping first homeowners enter the property market.
“Australia’s customer-owned banking institutions are excited to work with Government to help more Australians enter the property market."A recently published survey has illuminated how the dramatic movements in housing values over the past five years have reshaped the Australian first home buyer (FHB) market.
The Genworth FHB Sentiment Report, conducted in June and July across 2,000 prospective FHBs and 1,000 recent FHBs, showed that rather than pursuing the traditional Australian dream of owning a property for a lifetime, survey participants have “a more pragmatic approach” to enter the market  with an “entry level” property and upgrade down the road.   
Around one in three (32.3%) prospective FHBs plan to sell their first property within five years, with the trend even more pronounced in Sydney (39.5%) and Melbourne (36.3%).
As a result, free-standing homes are being overtaken by small apartments as the most popular property among FHBs, with investment properties also becoming more prevalent among those looking to enter the market. One in six prospective FHBs plan to buy an investment property as their first home, as compared to one in ten among the recent FHB respondents.
In order to capitalise on the opportunity seen in the current market, around 60% of prospective FHBs plan to buy now with less than a 20% deposit as compared to the 47.4% of recent FHBs who bought their first property with less than a 20% deposit.
To bridge the gap, 75.1% of prospective FHBs plan to apply for the government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, 27.5% expect to ask their family for assistance and 15.8% plan to use lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).
Of the recent FHBs, around 70% reported they did not fund 100% of their deposit from their own savings, with the majority (56.9%) relying on family assistance and 35.6% utilising LMI.
“Dynamic market conditions are resulting in changing first home buyer behaviour and needs,” said Genworth CEO and MD Georgette Nicholas.
“To address the increasing demand for ‘entry-level’ first homes which are held for less than five years, we recently announced a new monthly premium LMI offering in addition to our current single upfront premium product.
“This offering provides borrowers with the option…to pay the LMI premium in instalments over time, which means a greater portion of their loan can be utilised to support the purchase of their first home.”
The new monthly premium LMI also gives borrowers the flexibility to refinance at a later date without the need for a refund of LMI premium.
“As first home buyer needs continue to evolve, it is important that a range of stakeholders – both public and private – work together to develop solutions that complement each other and continue to support the Australian dream of homeownership,” said Nicholas.
姬琳达珍 Debello (LREA)

LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd

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Monday, September 16, 2019

http://ljgrealestate.com.au/property/4-celica-street-runcorn-qld-4113

Increasing prosperity in Australia will be a function of productivity growth and investment

According to Mr Chronican, the following initiatives “would be helpful” to stimulate economic growth:
  • a “simpler and more efficient tax system”;
  • an investment allowance that would offer business accelerated depreciation for increases in investment (said to be “on the agenda” for both government and the opposition), which would “more directly target where stimulus in needed”;
  • Long-term infrastructure planning and asset creation (such as transport links to support new housing developments);
  • Long-term planning and investment in non-physical assets,such as education and training systems;
  • reducing “unproductive regulation”; and
  • activity that helps build greater confidence. 
A new cycle of “meaningful” growth cannot be restarted through property, the CEO of NAB has said, suggesting that business investment is needed to create growth and improve productivity.
Writing in an opinion piece, the NAB group CEO and chairman-elect Philp Chronican has suggested that property cannot be the saving grace for Australia’s economy and that rate cuts may lose their significance in an environment of record-low interest rates.
Mr Chronican elaborated: “Interest rate cuts may have been useful for the residential property market. But given rates are already at historic lows, future cuts are unlikely to have any impact. And we can’t restart a cycle of meaningful economic growth through property.
“We need to foster business investment to create growth and improve productivity,” he said.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the official cash rate at 1 per cent, in line with market expectations, after concluding that “outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the risks are tilted to the downside”. 
Indeed, GDP growth is at its lowest since the GFC with the unemployment rate, inflation growth and wages growth little changed in the past year.
The central bank is expected to cut rates further in the coming months, following on from its  back-to-back reductions in June and July, with some analysts expecting the cash rate to hit 0.5 per cent by the end of 2019 and potentially further ease rates into 2020, too, given an underperforming labour market and lower spending.
However, NAB CEO Phil Chronican has suggested that Australian businesses are “at a critical impasse” as despite interest rates being at record lows, the private sector is “technically in recession and capital expenditure is down one per cent on a year ago”.
He added that despite businesses having “cash in the bank and ambition to grow”, they are being “cautious” and “don’t know if now is the right time to invest”.
As such, the new CEO suggested that there is a need to “foster business investment to create growth and improve productivity” and that “navigating this challenge is a shared responsibility of business and government”.
Writing in an opinion piece for the Australian Financial Review, Mr Chronican continued: “This week’s NAB Monthly Business Survey showed that, in Australia, both confidence and conditions declined in August and remain well below long-run averages. Trading conditions, forward orders and profitability are all lower.
“Australia’s GDP growth is at its weakest since the GFC and only modest growth is expected in the medium term.
“Overall the risks to business owners can look one sided – but there are factors we can influence to foster growth. It will take effort on both sides of the Tasman to support increased activity.”
According to Mr Chronican, the following initiatives “would be helpful” to stimulate economic growth:
  • a “simpler and more efficient tax system”;
  • an investment allowance that would offer business accelerated depreciation for increases in investment (said to be “on the agenda” for both government and the opposition), which would “more directly target where stimulus in needed”;
  • Long-term infrastructure planning and asset creation (such as transport links to support new housing developments);
  • Long-term planning and investment in non-physical assets,such as education and training systems;
  • reducing “unproductive regulation”; and
  • activity that helps build greater confidence. 
“The challenge of building confidence, indeed all these challenges, are not for governments alone to solve. 
“Business can – and is – taking action. We can boost capital deployment. And we can increase productivity in our own businesses,” he said.
Mr Chronican added that the major bank was “open for business and are lending to businesses that want to grow” and said the bank supported broader mechanisms that help customers, including the Government’s Australian Business Growth Fund – which he said was “designed to facilitate long-term equity capital investments in small and medium businesses”.
He concluded: “Increasing prosperity in Australia will be a function of productivity growth and investment. NAB is absolutely committed to doing our part.”

姬琳达珍 Debello (LREA)

LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd

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"Your Local Property Management & Sales Specialists"

Thursday, September 12, 2019

FHB - 6.8%; NON-FHB -14%; INVESTORS -25.5%

We’re proud to present the QBE Australian Housing Outlook 2019-2022.
     Our in-depth report, which has been produced in partnership with BIS Oxford
     Economics, provides insights into the Australian residential housing market now and
     over the next three years.

     Residential property market analysis

     Inside these pages, you’ll find expert commentary about the market and its drivers.
     The centrepiece of the report is the three-year forecasts of our capital city house and
     unit prices. We also delve into the shape of our market in regional Australia.

     This year our Spotlight feature “High-density missing the mark?” examines whether
     medium and high-density dwellings are a positive outcome for the residential property
     market and housing affordability.



https://www.slideshare.net/GillandDebello/the-qbe-australianhousingoutlook20192022

Sunday, September 8, 2019

Housing has got significantly harder for the poor post GFC. “In 2018, the poorest fifth of Australian households spent 29 per cent of their gross incomes on housing costs. That burden has grown significantly over time - from 21.9 per cent in 1995 and 23.7 per cent in 2008.


Meanwhile, the relative cost housing has barely changed for the richest fifth of Australian households. In 2018, this group spent 9.4 per cent of gross income on housing costs, compared with 9.3 per cent in 1995.”https://www.smh.com.au/national/soaring-cost-of-housing-for-poorest-australians-is-driving-inequality-grattan-institute-20190906-p52ot2.html

Most Australians are spending more of their income on housing than they used to, but low-income households are being squeezed the hardest.

Many are in poverty, and many more are suffering financial stress. A growing number of Australians are becoming homeless.

A decade ago the Rudd federal government established the National Rental Affordability Scheme – NRAS. The scheme paid incentives to developers and community housing organisations that built new homes and rented them out for at least 20% below market rents for 10 years.

The Abbott government axed the scheme in 2014. Labor promised to reintroduce it if won the 2019 election. Now advocates of affordable housing are calling on the Morrison government to do the same.

But new research published by the Grattan Institute today concludes they are wrong. The NRAS was expensive, inefficient and mainly helped those not in greatest need.


Read more: On housing, there's clear blue water between the main parties


Other policies, such as building social housing and boosting Commonwealth Rent Assistance, would be better targeted and waste less money along the way.

Poor value for money

The value of the NRAS subsidy was set much higher than it needed to be.

NRAS developers still on the program receive about A$11,000 of public money per unit per year (the subsidy was set originally at A$8,000, but indexed).

The problem is, A$11,000 is much more money than the developers need to cover the cost of the rental discount.

In 2016 the value of the 20% rental discount was slightly less than A$4,000 a year in the typical suburb in which NRAS properties were built.


Read more: Ten lessons from cities that have risen to the affordable housing challenge


The leftover value of the subsidy – about A$7,000 a year – was essentially a windfall gain for developers.

We estimate it provided windfall gains to private developers of at least A$1 billion, or roughly one-third of the total cost of the scheme.

Community housing providers also received windfall gains, although they would have reinvested the funds into more affordable housing or deeper rental discounts for tenants.

The scheme was also poor value for money because the subsidy didn’t vary depending on location or type of dwelling: the same subsidy was offered for a one-bedroom apartment or a three-bedroom home. Not surprisingly, the scheme ultimately funded a lot of small, cheap-to-build units.

Not directed at those most in need

The eligibility criteria were far too loose.

Someone can qualify to live in one of the NRAS dwellings left on the scheme with an income of up to A$50,000 – a good deal higher than the median income.

A couple can qualify if their household income is below A$70,000.

It means about half of all households that rent can qualify to live in an NRAS subsidised home. Half of them would be ineligible for Commonwealth Rent Assistance because their incomes are too high.

Only one-third of the households living in an NRAS home at the scheme’s peak in 2016 had gross household incomes below A$30,000 a year, whereas one-third had incomes above A$50,000 a year.

No extra housing

There’s also little evidence the NRAS led to much more housing being built than otherwise.

Government subsidies don’t create extra housing if they crowd out housing that would have been built anyway. Crowding out is most likely when supply is already constrained, as it is in major Australian cities where land-use rules prevent greater density in established suburbs. International research suggests affordable housing crowds out private housing.

No useful stimulus

Nor was the NRAS a useful stimulus. It began in 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis, but most NRAS properties were only approved between 2013 and 2015, by which time housing construction was already booming.

Administrative difficulties and a complex design made housing constructed through NRAS anything but timely.

Better alternatives

Instead of reinstating the NRAS, state and federal governments should focus on policies that will do the most (at least cost) to better house low-income Australians.

A Rudd-era policy the Morrison government should introduce is the Social Housing Initiative, which built 20,000 new social housing units and refurbished another 80,000 over two years at a cost of A$5.6 billion.

The economic hit was immediate: construction approvals spiked within 12 months of the announcement. A repeat today would provide a more effective boost to declining housing construction than a reinstated NRAS.


Read more: Australia's social housing policy needs stronger leadership and an investment overhaul


Boosting Commonwealth Rent Assistance by 40%, and indexing it to changes in rents typically paid by people receiving income support, would be a fairer and more cost-effective way to help the much larger number of lower-income earners struggling with housing costs.

It shouldn’t push up rents much because only some of the extra assistance will be spent on housing.

The states should also fix planning rules that prevent more homes being built in inner and middle-ring suburbs of our largest cities. It would help a bit to make housing cheaper to buy and rent. Reforming tenancy rules would make renting more secure.


Read more: To make housing more affordable this is what state governments need to do


There is a powerful case for governments to do more to help house low-income Australians. But unless we learn from past mistakes, we will wind up with another expensive housing policy that does little to help those who most need that support.


http://theconversation.com/rudds-rental-affordability-scheme-was-a-1-billion-gift-to-developers-abbott-was-right-to-axe-it-122854

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

The biggest issue remains access to finance for purchasers, and there is a need to continue to focus on this pressing issue.

The downturn in the residential property market has served as a drag on GDP growth, according to the latest ABS data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its latest National Accounts Data, reporting GDP growth of 0.5 per cent over the quarter ending 30 June 2019, and 1.4 per cent on an annualised basis – in line with market expectations. 
However, the data also revealed that over the same period, dwelling investment fell 4.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 9.1 per cent in annual terms.
As a result, the decline in dwelling investment stunted GDP growth by 0.2 per cent over the quarter to 30 June 2019.
Chief executive of the Property Council of Australia Ken Morrison said he was not surprised by the result.
“We’ve been highlighting the potential impact of a slowdown in housing construction on economic growth for some time, and this is now clearly showing up in the June quarter GDP result,” he observed.
Mr Morrison said the recent improvement in housing market conditions could help strengthen the sector’s contribution to GDP in the coming quarters, but added that construction activity remains subdued.
“Recent signs that housing prices are stabilising are welcome and important for consumer confidence, but housing construction is the critical driver of investment and jobs and this is falling,” he said.
“The housing construction pipeline is constricting, with building approvals down 24 per cent over the past year.
“Stronger housing prices may lead to a turnaround in construction activity down the track, but the current reality is that construction is slowing, and that will weigh on economic growth and employment well into 2020.”
Mr Morrison expressed support for policy reforms that would further stimulate the housing sector, making particular reference to measures that would ease access to credit.   
“These are the dynamics of the housing markets that must focus the minds of policymakers across all levels of government,” he said.
“The biggest issue remains access to finance for purchasers, and there is a need to continue to focus on this pressing issue.
“We also need a plan to mitigate against the risk of future shortages in supply and the consequences for housing affordability.”
Mr Morrison concluded: “In this environment, state and territory governments have a big responsibility to ensure that their tax, planning and land supply policies are tuned appropriately – and in many cases, they are not.”
However, despite the negative effect of the recent housing downturn on GDP growth, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said he is pleased with the quarterly result in light of headwinds in the global economy. 
"[The] National Account numbers show the Australian economy continues to grow in the face of significant headwinds, both domestic and international," he said. 
"It is a difficult time for global economies with both the IMF and OECD downgrading their global economic outlook and Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Singapore, among other nations, recording negative economic growth in the June quarter.
"In the face of these challenges and the uncertainty created by the increasing trade tensions between China and the US, the Australian economy has again proven its remarkable resilience."

Sunday, September 1, 2019

National home values grew by 0.8 per cent over August, suggesting the Australian property market may have turned a corner.

This is the first time the national index has increased since October 2017, the latest research from property analytics firm, CoreLogic has revealed. It came after a July which saw property values neither increase nor decrease. 

And, research director Tim Lawless said, not only was this the turning point, but the percentage of growth was substantial.

“The significant lift in values over the month aligns with a consistent increase in auction clearance rates and a deeper pool of buyers at a time when the volume of stock advertised for sale remains low.

“It’s likely that buyer demand and confidence is responding to the positive effect of a stable federal government, as well as lower interest rates, tax cuts and a subtle easing in credit policy.”

The lift comes after a 12 month period which saw values decline 5.2 per cent, and an overall fall of 7.6 per cent since peak.

And, the increase in values also follows two consecutive interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in June and July.

How did each state perform?

Housing values increased across Sydney (1.6 per cent), Melbourne (1.4 per cent), Brisbane (0.2 per cent), Hobart (0.5 per cent) and Canberra (0.8 per cent).

However, across Adelaide (-0.2 per cent), Perth (-0.5 per cent) and Darwin (-1.2 per cent), prices fell.

“While the ‘recovery trend’ is still early, it does appear that growth trends are gathering some pace, particularly in the largest capital cities,” Lawless said.

Image: CoreLogic
Image: CoreLogic

Sydney prices are still 13.3 per cent less than they were at their peak, while homes in Darwin are valued 30.7 per cent less than they were at their peak.

In Perth, values are 20.6 per cent less than they were at their peak. And even Hobart is 0.3 per cent less valuable than it was at its peak - that’s despite regional Tasmania currently sitting at its peak.

Across the regions, only the Northern Territory, Tasmania and Victoria saw property values rise in August.

Expensive homes lead the charge

As the most expensive quarter of properties fell the most, they’ve also led the return to growth.

“The rapid recovery across higher valued properties makes sense considering this sector of the market recorded a more substantial correction,” Lawless said.

“Although values have fallen across the board over recent years, the larger declines amongst more expensive properties mean that they are relatively more affordable for those looking to upgrade,” he added.

Rents continue to fall

While dwelling values have changed direction, rents continue to fall, declining by 0.1 per cent in August. That’s the third month in a row of negative rent movements.

What does it all mean?

While CoreLogic had previously predicted a slow recovery, today it said that as home loan rates grow cheaper and housing credit restrictions soften, the recovery could occur as quickly as the market fell.

“No doubt, policy makers and regulators will be monitoring the housing market indicators very closely over the coming months. 

“At the outset, it appears that a rapid recovery would confirm that low interest rates and a loosening in credit policy is reigniting some market exuberance, despite housing affordability remaining a significant challenge, rising unemployment, low wages growth and near record-high levels of household debt.”

http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au