Monday, January 11, 2021

Will Aussie housing market defy expectations again this year?

HomeSectionsMarket talk Submit Will Aussie housing market defy expectations again this year? by Ryan Smith | 12 Jan 2021 Increase Text Size Decrease Text Size Print RSS Email to a colleague MOST VIEWED APRA slashes liquidity available to lenders The regulator reduced the aggregate amount of committed liquidity by $46 billion, and hinted at more cuts to come ACT housing minister pressured to explain why housing units were kept vacant A report alleges that government-owned affordable housing units sat empty for over a year Experts see strong price growth in housing market in 2021 However, some warn that policymakers may need to rein-in runaway market SPECIAL REPORTS 2018 Commercial Lenders Roundtable Top 10 Brokerages 2018 2018 Brokers on Aggregators Australia’s property market defied expectations in 2020 – so what does 2021 hold for Aussie real estate? When COVID-19 locked down the country, analysts predicted a double-digit drop in the housing market. However, those dire predictions never materialized, and prices – which ended the year just 0.7% below pre-pandemic levels – are on the rise. So how will the market fare in 2020? When The New Daily asked a group of real estate experts to prognosticate, none would give a figure. However, they did talk about some key things to look out for in the property market this year. The biggest news could continue to be market growth in regional areas. Dr Sarah Hunter, chief economist at BIS Oxford Economics, told The New Daily that if local COVID-19 cases remained under control and unemployment stayed stable, regional areas and detached houses in smaller capitals could see continued growth. Hunter said that there was still significant demand from those taking advantage of buyers’ grants and stamp-duty concessions. “Falling interest rates improved affordability, which helped demand, but supply hasn’t responded all that much yet as the volume of transactions – although they are turning – have not written anywhere near as much,” Hunter told The New Daily. “In terms of long-term sustainability, there’s still demand shock around [reduced] migration, which will likely make apartments cheaper.” Anna Porter, director of Suburbanite, agreed. She predicted that prices for off-the-plan units would fall, largely due to investors whose worry about the strength of capital city rental markets will make them less likely to purchase property. Read more: Experts see strong price growth in housing market in 2021 Vacancy rates in some capital cities rose above 4% last year as the pandemic slammed tenant-heavy industries with job losses, The New Daily reported. And data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority showed that investors have been slow to resume repayments; one third of deferred loans at the big four banks in October were investment loans, APRA reported. “There could be a bloodbath that comes to fruition in a short, compressed time frame if people sell in quick succession in areas that don’t have undersupply issues,” Porter told The New Daily. On the other hand, the impact of loan deferrals may not be as severe as predicted. According to the Australian Banking Association, the number of deferred loans cratered over the course of six months last year – plummeting 66%, from 493,440 in June to 169,677 in November. And CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen predicted that house prices would continue to rise in the first half of 2021, ahead of the end of loan repayment holidays. Owen also said that the RBA’s historic interest-rate cuts and programs like HomeBuilder and the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme outweighed the market’s negative factors. “The only thing worth noting when you see incentives for first-home buyers, for example, it tends to have a vacuum effect where purchases that may have happened anyway are pulled forward,” Owen told The New Daily. “Once these schemes run out, we may see demand slow a little bit, and the other thing that could slow price increases is APRA intervention.”

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Thursday, January 7, 2021

Brisbane to enter three-day lockdown to contain contagious UK COVID strain

The Queensland Government is taking a leaf out of South Australia's playbook in a bid to stamp out a potential COVID-19 outbreak, with a three-day lockdown to start from 6pm today in Brisbane, Moreton Bay, Ipswich, Redlands and Logan. The announcement follows yesterday's confirmation that a confirmed case of a hotel quarantine cleaner from Brisbane's south has the highly contagious UK strain of the virus. People in the affected local government areas (LGAs) will be required to stay at home except: to attend work if they can't work from home; to buy essentials like groceries and medicine; look after the vulnerable; and exercise within their neighbourhood. Masks will also need to be worn everywhere in those local government areas except if people are at home. Cafes, pubs and restaurants will be open only for take-away service. Funerals will be restricted to 20 guests and weddings restricted to 10 guests. Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she was asking people to have a long weekend at home, as "there are no second chances with this pandemic". "We have learned from Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales that a short, sharp lockdown is better than a long one and this a more contagious strain," she said. "Three days is better than 30." The Premier said she once again called on Queenslanders to protect each other. "All we can do is stay home and stay safe and please get tested," the Premier said. Health Minister Yvette D'Ath said extra testing clinics with more staff had been opened. "We want to see as many people tested as possible and people stay home and stay safe," the Minister said. Chief Health Officer Dr Jeanette Young said it was essential to stop people moving through the community. "We know that to stop the spread of the virus we have to stop the movement of people and test, test, test," Dr Young said. "Queenslanders have done a tremendous job of containing this virus for so long- we just have to keep it up." Prime Minister Scott Morrison praised the Queensland Premier on Twitter for her decision, describing it as a "wise call" to have a brief lockdown while authorities get on top of the recent case. "This will buy much needed time," the Prime Minister said. New strain's spread "out of control" in the UK The Independent Sage, a group of scientists in the UK, issued a statement last week concluded the new strain of COVID-19 that seems to have emerged in the southeast of England is between 40-80 per cent more transmissible than earlier variants. The scientists said COVID-19 was "out of control" in the UK with current Tier 4 stay-at-home restrictions now unable to contain its spread, even with closure of schools and universities. "The pandemic is now out of control, and the NHS is struggling, with some hospitals having to stop non-COVID activities. The NHS (National Health Service) is no longer being protected," the Independent Sage commented. "For these reasons, there is a strong argument for maximising the coverage of the population with at least one dose of vaccine, even though this requires a change to the dosage schedule. "The urgency of concerted and effective action to supress the new variant cannot be overstated." The Independent Sage also called for restricted movement from and to Great Britain with the rest of the world. There are currently at least 40 nations worldwide that have closed their borders to UK arrivals, including Singapore, Spain, Canada and India. Updated at 8:51am AEST on 8 January 2021.

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Monday, January 4, 2021

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Australia house prices finish wild year with strong growth

Australian home prices rose for a third straight month in December, capping a wild year in which prices dipped during the first COVID-19 outbreak, before rebounding strongly as the economy reopened. House values in major cities rose 0.9% last month, CoreLogic Inc. data released Monday showed. For the year, prices gained 2%, defying concern home values would plunge after coronavirus lockdowns pushed Australia into its first recession in almost three decades. Instead, Australia joined countries from New Zealand to the UK and the US where property markets have surged during the pandemic, as record low interest rates fuel demand, pushing buyers to compete for a scarce supply of listings. The desire for more spacious houses as people worked from home has also buoyed prices. “Record-low interest rates played a key role in supporting housing market activity, along with a spectacular rise in consumer confidence as COVID-related restrictions were lifted and forecasts for economic conditions turned out to be overly pessimistic,” said Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic. “Containing the spread of the virus has been critical to Australia’s economic and housing market resilience.” The ability to work remotely also boosted property markets outside the big cities. Home prices in regional areas jumped 6.9% in 2020 -- more than three times the increase in capital city prices. “As remote-working opportunities became more prevalent and demand for lifestyle properties became more popular, regional areas of Australia saw housing market conditions surge,” Lawless said. “Regional housing markets had generally underperformed relative to the capital city regions over the past decade, but 2020 saw regional housing values surge as demand outweighed supply.” While the outlook for housing prices this year is looking positive, “clear and present risks” remain, Lawless said. Sydney and Melbourne are battling new COVID outbreaks, and new restrictions would set back the economic recovery and have a negative impact on home prices, Lawless said. Closed international borders are “another wildcard,” with Melbourne and Sydney most impacted by a drop in immigration. Best Regards Linda 姬琳达珍 and Carlos Debello (LREA) LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd Debello LREA推荐书LJ Gilland房地产 http://ljgrealestate.com.au/testimonials/ Request FREE Rental Appraisal here! "Your Local Property Management & Sales Specialists" PO BOX 19 ZILLMERE 4034 电话:07 3263 6085 Very recently we rented this Caboolture home without advertising, START