Wednesday, February 24, 2021

How to determine the real value of a property - “depends squarely on what a specific purchaser will pay”

With various factors affecting market value and pricing, can one truly predict what buyers will pay for properties?Moving forward, low interest rates, economic performance and government stimulus will certainly influence growth in value, but scarcity will be one of the biggest factors that will influence market value and pricing moving forward. “Whether the scarcity relates to the house or land size, the type of property, construction quality, unique view or location, making price predictions is challenging. As property markets recover from the impact of COVID-19, sudden market movements, whether upturns or downturns, can influence pricing as well.this is not to say that market valuations are worthless”. “For properties where scarcity and market movements are not in play, a real estate agent is clearly in a better position to predict buyer behaviour,Agents and valuers often look into buyer interest, or the number of groups inspecting the property, as well as past sales data as basis for their valuations. Determining the ‘right price’ Apart from a range of broad factors including scarcity, market movements and economic performance, individual buyers and sellers will also impact the final price.amount of cash at the buyer’s disposal, a property’s proximity to a buyer’s extended family, and the perceptions of the suburb or town” could affect pricing. Similarly, the vendor’s urgency to acquire cash may influence the market value of the property just as much. “When some of these factors, including scarcity, come into play, the value put on a property by a buyer can be affected by anything from 10 to 40 per cent,” the chairman said. The ultimate determining factor for property value then, according to the executive chairman? “An auction is the true litmus test for determining the real value of a property

Brisbane Rental demand has transitioned towards detached and lower density housing markets since the pandemic, reflecting the disruption to rental demand from overseas migration, but also the stress of changed working conditions, caused by Covid restrictions.

Westpac is forecasting 20 per cent gains in the housing market over the next two years. In a report released Monday, the banking institution’s chief economist Bill Evans said he was expecting dwelling prices to rise 10 per cent nationally in 2021, and said the pace would continue into 2022, off the back of strong economic growth. “The upturn is being supported by record low interest rates; the confident expectation among borrowers that these rates will remain low for years to come; ample credit supply; and an improving economic backdrop, as the roll-out of vaccines promises to bring the pandemic to an end and drives a sustained lift in confidence,” Evans said. “The bottom line is that Australia’s housing upturn now has strong momentum that looks to be lifting further and will remain well supported by monetary conditions and an improving economic backdrop.” Dwelling approvals surged 22 per cent in the final quarter of 2020, and new lending for dwellings lifted by 16 per cent in the December quarter, which Evans says demonstrates a robust and confident housing market. “Most tellingly, buyer demand has run well ahead of ‘on market’ supply, with sales outstripping new listings by 34 per cent over the last six months and ‘stock on market’ down to just 2.5 months of sales—[where] the long run average is 3.8,” he said. “A lift in new listings will no doubt be forthcoming but for now this is clearly a seller’s market.” House prices forecast: Westpac Average 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sydney 5.1 -8.9 5.3 2.7 10 10 Melbourne 3.7 -7 5.3 -1.3 8 10 Brisbane 1.7 0.2 0.3 3.6 10 10 Perth -1 -4.7 -6.8 1.9 12 8 Adelaide 1.9 1.3 -0.2 5.9 10 8 Hobart 3.9 8.7 3.9 6.1 8 6 Australia 3.5 -6.4 3.1 1.8 10 10 ^ (as % change). Source: Westpac bulletin Unsurprisingly it was the smaller capital cities and regional towns that were most likely to capitalise on these forecast dwelling price increases. There was still concerns about lingering areas of weakness, specifically the Sydney and Melbourne high rise markets, but according to the Westpac Housing Pulse report they look to be a minor drag on the broader market surge. Evans said it was the regions that had been largely unaffected by virus disruptions and benefitted from related shifts in internal migration flows that would see the biggest boost in property prices. Evans said they were also predicting good news for the labour market. “Australia is expected to see growth well above trend this year and next. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline steadily to 6 per cent by end of 2021, and 5.3 per cent by end of 2022. “We now expect the upswing to generate stronger, double-digit, price growth near term while our expectation, back in September last year, remains that a policy response can be expected later in 2022 which will settle markets into 2023.” A high number of developers are planning to roll-out of new offices projects over the next six months as a rebound in confidence ignites financing and speculative projects, according to NAB’s quarterly commercial sentiment survey. To date, Australia has faired much better than most other countries on both the health and economic fronts, with many activities now returning close to their pre-pandemic normal. The recovery from the pandemic-driven recession is now filtering through into commercial property market sentiment, with NAB’s survey, a measure of sentiment based on expectations for capital values and rents, lifting for a consecutive quarter. “While [our] index lifted for the second straight quarter, it is still very negative and well below the long-term survey average,” NAB chief economist Alan Oster said. “However, expectations are improving for a stronger near-term recovery in economic activity and a lower peak in unemployment, which is seeing overall confidence levels in commercial property markets improve.” Sentiment continues to diverge across sectors amid ongoing travel restrictions, with office and retail sentiment lifting and CBD hotels continuing to lag, sitting as the weakest asset class. Industrial sentiment however rose sharply over the quarter, supported by ever growing demand in online retail and continued requirements for available warehouse and logistics space. Office markets Sydney aerial shot ▲ Vacancy rates in the country's two biggest office markets, Sydney and Melbourne, have already risen significantly over the last six months. On the development front, over half of property developers surveyed said they planned to commence works on new office projects in the short-term, up from 39 per cent in the previous survey. “The survey highlights a shift in emphasis among property developers planning to start new works from residential to commercial building,” Oster said. “A below average of developers said they were targeting residential developments, down from the previous quarter, but more are planning to start new works in the industrial, office and retail sectors.” Shoring-up optimism has been the post-vaccine outlook for revenue and profitability. Despite this, longer-term changes to workplace are still playing out as employers and staff seek a new balance in flexible work arrangements. Of the 370 property professionals surveyed by NAB the average expect over three in four (77 per cent) of white collar workers will return to CBD offices post-Covid. Some forecast a reduction of as much as 10-15 per cent in annual net absorption as work-from-home rates increase and firms search for 80 per cent of their existing CBD office foot print post-Covid, offset by greater workplace space ratios. NAB said it expects the national vacancy rate, which remains unchanged at 9 per cent, to climb to 9.4 per cent in the next 12 months as businesses attempt to reduce their property footprints, before easing to 8.9 per cent in two years’ time. “The outlook for capital growth for the next two years is for contraction in office, retail and CBD hotels, but at a slower rate than forecast in the third quarter,” Oster said. “Industrial property expectations were however upgraded, and raised in all states, insulated by unchanged vacancy rates of 5.8 per cent.” Property professionals also pointed to a big improvement in the ease of acquiring debt and equity to run their businesses across the fourth quarter. They also expect debt and equity funding conditions to continue improving over the next six months, bringing them back to levels not seen since mid-2015. Across the quarter, the average pre-commitment to meet external debt funding requirements for new developments in Australia fell to 63.3 per cent for residential property, but increased to 60.6 per cent for commercial. Brisbane’s housing market: policy updates The Home Builder scheme will continue until the end of March in a bid to prevent a major decline in construction activity. Read more: HomeBuilder Gains Eleventh Hour Extension Queensland faces a “hard road” over the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says. Read more: Queensland Budget Announcement The central bank, which introduced a package of measures at its latest meeting, cut the cash rate target to 0.1 per cent—the lowest in Australia’s history, in its bid to support a recovery. Read more: RBA Cuts Interest Rate in Bid to Build Economy Brisbane housing market forecasts ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy while Commonwealth Bank updated its forecasts, projecting a strong rebound in prices across the second half of 2021. CBA now expects Brisbane house prices to increase by 16.6 per cent to December 2022 compared to 13.7 per cent in Sydney and 12.4 per cent in Melbourne. Westpac has also updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023. Brisbane Housing Market Insights: February 2021 https://theurbandeveloper.com/articles/brisbane-housing-market-update via @TheUrbDev

Good morning all, and mentally prepare yourself for maybe having the Olympics in 11 years' time.

10 things you need to know this morning in Australia (via @BIAUS) https://www.businessinsider.com.au/10-things-you-need-to-know-this-morning-in-australia-v19-2021-2

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Monday, February 22, 2021

- not for fb deletion - Greetings, team. 10 things you need to know this morning in Australia

1. The Guardian is reporting this morning that the government will raise the JobSeeker payment by $50 a fortnight. While it is an increase, it will still fall below the current rate, which is bolstered by the coronavirus supplement until the end of March. Meanwhile, activists including the Australian Unemployed Workers Union are pushing a campaign for JobSeeker to be $80 a day, pushing the payment above the poverty line. 2. The Bank of Queensland (BoQ) will buy ME Bank under a new proposal worth $1.325 billion. “This is a major step in providing a compelling alternative to the big four banks,” CEO George Frazis said in a market update. While the ACCC has already green-lit the deal, it will now need to be signed off by regulators. 3. TikTok Australia has announced a new partnership with e-commerce platform Shopify, tightening the links between social media and online retailers. Local businesses will be free to create TikTok marketing campaigns, target specific user groups and monitor ad performance through Shopify. The news comes as competitors, including Instagram, seek new ways to get users to spend while they scroll. 4. Facebook has tried to restart talks with major news outlets Nine Entertainment Co and News Corp Australia about paying for news content, the SMH reports. However, the company wants to maintain the right to abandon these deals if Australia passes the media bargaining code, which is obviously a sticking point in negotiations. 5. Since Facebook brought down the hammer on news in Australia, the top-performing Australian pages look markedly difference. According to data from social media analysis tool CrowdTangle, Australian News Feeds are now populated with more satire and specific interest pages in their feeds in the place of news. 6. A 50%-odd rally in sharemarkets in 2020 has sent retail investors running headlong into the market and is fuelling growth of investment services. Commission-free US broker Stake tripled the number of traders on its platform in just eight months, hitting 300,000 in February. Meanwhile SelfWealth has reported “the most substantial period of customer growth in the company’s history”. 7. The coronavirus death toll in the US has passed 500,000. The country hit 400,000 deaths just over a month ago, on January 20. “It’s nothing like we have ever been through in the last 102 years, since the 1918 influenza pandemic,” the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, told CNN. 8. After a month laying low, Trump is going to give his first address since leaving the presidency. He’s set to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Florida next week. He is expected to talk about the future of the Republican Party and criticise Joe Biden’s policies. 9. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson revealed a timeline for lifting coronavirus restrictions in England. Schools are scheduled to open starting March 8, with all remaining restrictions lifted gradually. Indoor mixing will stay banned until at least May, with some restrictions remaining long into June. Makes you pretty glad for our situation! 10. Bitcoin tumbled 8% Monday after hitting a record above $US58,000 for the first time over the weekend. On Sunday, Bitcoin hit $US58,042, for a year-to-date gain of over 100%. The popular cryptocurrency has surged 305% in 2020. BONUS ITEM Okay, this is just nuts. This is a non-exclusive NBA clip, traded like a real asset. Top Shots is either genius or completely demented, and possibly both.10 things you need to know this morning in Australia (via @BIAUS) https://www.businessinsider.com.au/10-things-you-need-to-know-this-morning-in-australia-v17-2021-2

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Australia's best and worst performing #regional #housingmarkets have been revealed in our latest Regional Market Update.
ow.ly/QA3k50DEjbL

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

The two key drivers of the long-term property boom may be drawing to a close, which may relieve the pressure off house prices over the longer term, according to an economist.

AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said that while there is still some time left before the property boom ends, he highlighted that interest rates “are at or close to the bottom”, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) now resorting to extreme measures to raise inflation. Dr Oliver said that this should ultimately result in higher interest rates. Commenting further on what could end the property boom, Dr Oliver said: “Second, the chronic undersupply of property may be starting to fade thanks to the unit building boom since 2015, the hit to immigration and home building incentives, which are likely to keep home building high for the next 12 months.” “Supply is likely to remain strong this year and next, but population growth has collapsed and could take years to recover. This may take some pressure off house prices on a three-to-five-year view.” In the shorter term, however, Dr Oliver said that the average capital city home prices are expected to rise by 5 to 10 per cent in 2021 and 2022 spurred by record-low interest rates and economic recovery. His projections have followed those by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), which said that property prices could rise by over 14 per cent in the next two years. Dr Oliver also said that as the economy begins to recover, this would offset the wind-down of government income support and loan repayment deferral measures implemented on the back of the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, he said while that first home buyer (FHB) incentives would likely be reduced, investor interest could accelerate and “fill the gap”.However, Dr Oliver stressed that the outlook for the property market is “divergent”, adding that the drop in immigration amid border closures would likely constrain inner-city Sydney and Melbourne as well as unit demand. On the other hand, outer suburban areas, houses, the smaller cities and regional property would all likely experience strong price gains, spurred by the “escape the city” trends and less exposure to immigration, he said. “Expect average price gains of around 10 per cent in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin in addition to regional areas,” he said. Dr Oliver said the divergence has also been evident in rising residential vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne, reflecting growing unit supply and the fall in immigration. But he pointed out that vacancy rates have been falling in other cities. “This, in turn, points to upwards pressure on rents and property values in other cities relative to Sydney and Melbourne,” he said. Commenting on the broader economy, Dr Oliver said that it is unlikely to justify rate rises until around 2023. However, he flagged that a tightening in lending standards could be on the horizon in 2022 if the property market continues to ramp up as expected, causing financial stability concerns for the RBA. He added that this should “start to slow things down and eventually the bottoming of the long-term interest rate cycle and the shift to oversupply may take pressure off prices, but that’s a while off yet”. RBA governor Philip Lowe recently told the House of Representatives’ standing committee on economics that the RBA would continue to monitor lending standards instead of housing prices. [Related: House prices to soar by 16% over 2 years: CBA]

The underlying story is a rent story, not a housing story. When the rate of housing formation is low, as we’re seeing now, weakness in rents comes through, particularly in those areas affected by the shock. It’s less of a house price story. House prices are more driven by financial flows and credit.

Landlords in inner-city Melbourne have taken the biggest property hit during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by landlords in Sydney’s inner city and eastern suburbs, according to data from CoreLogic. Between March 2020 and last month, there was an 11% drop in rents in the Melbourne CBD and a 10.8% fall in Sydney’s inner city and inner southern suburbs, according to CoreLogic figures published by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation. “This shows weakness in housing triggered by the pandemic is showing up in the rental, rather than the purchase, markets,” NHFIC researcher Hugh Hartigan told The Australian Financial Review. “The underlying story is a rent story, not a housing story. When the rate of housing formation is low, as we’re seeing now, weakness in rents comes through, particularly in those areas affected by the shock. It’s less of a house price story. House prices are more driven by financial flows and credit.” Rents in regional markets are also showing the impact of COVID-19. Rents in smaller cities like Darwin and Perth have spiked by as much as 11.1%, and regional centres that have seen a flood of new residents fleeing from locked-down cities have also seen rents spike, AFR reported. “That inner city story is a pretty weak one in terms of rents, but conversely, dome of the major cities – particularly Darwin, Perth – you’re seeing very tight vacancy rates,” Hartigan said. “And in places like Coffs Harbour [on the North Coast in NSW]. There’s a lot of those different and highly variant stories playing out across the country.” However, there are tentative signs of improvements in the Sydney and Melbourne rental markets, according to data published Tuesday by SQM Research. The vacancy rate fell in Sydney’s CBD, and asking rents across greater Sydney rose enough last month to lift the national average for the first time in a year. SQM said there were also encouraging signs in Melbourne’s rental market. Best Regards Linda 姬琳达珍 and Carlos Debello (LREA) LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd Debello LREA推荐书LJ Gilland房地产 http://ljgrealestate.com.au/testimonials/ Request FREE Rental Appraisal here! "Your Local Property Management & Sales Specialists" PO BOX 19 ZILLMERE 4034 电话:07 3263 6085 LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd would love your feedback. Post a review to one of our profiles i.e. https://g.page/ljgrealestate/review?gm https://www.ratemyagent.com.au/real-estate-agent/linda-debello/reviews/80-albert-st-woodridge-aauvwd A pleasure sales experience Linda and Carlos have managed my property for over 10 years. They have always handled the property so it has been kept in excellent condition and rent always paid in time. Yes there have been some difficult tenants but I didn’t have to worry about a thing because it just got taken care of. It was the effortless sale and got the exact asking price. Can’t fault them, can only recommend them. Review submitted by (Vendor) on 7 Feb 2021 Your reply - 11 Feb 2021 Hi Bolle, Thank you for your kind words. Please stay in touch with us if you should need anything such as research etc... Always happy to help :) https://www.ratemyagent.com.au/real-estate-agent/linda-debello/reviews/34-dalewood-place-moggill-aavvbf http://ljgrealestate.com.au/competitive-commission/ http://ljgrealestate.com.au/property-management/ http://www.facebook.com/ljgrealestate